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Action Required : Re-tool Transportation for a Stable Circulatory System as Fundamental Assumptions Change
 

Mobility is the circulatory system for our economy.

The Economic EKG is unstable.

Leadership, rallying faith and action to invent vulnerability reduction.

 

Transportation requires 26.5 Quads (Quadrillion BTU's per year) to apply 5.3.

Waste in transportation can dramatically improve mission performance and economic stability.

Policy: Churn, A Nimble Economy
 

Churn, individual ingenuity amplified by commercial collaboration empowers the massive structure of the economy to adapt to new opportunities and risks.

The Internet is a great example. In 37 years the Internet rocketed from a framework to a major economic driver. Lesson: even radically explosive Churn require iterations of innovate, do, discard/reinforce that stretch into decades.

With Peak Oil we have three years to demonstrate, eight years for major shift.

Unlike communications policy, energy and transportation policies restrict Churn.

Innovations, like Morgantown, have not iterated into commercialization.
Summary
 

Intent: Assure mission effectiveness despite decreasing oil supply and price shocks.

Objective: Reduce petroleum usage by 30% by 2015, Presidential Order 13423

Background: Principles of War, Political Instability, Peak Oil, Global Warming

Policy: Churn, a Nimble Economy

Logistics: Re-tool for the desired result of on-demand sustainable mobility.

Implementation: Last Oil Crisis, Parasitic Mass, System Design, JPods

Supporting Details: List of additional background studies

Contact: Bill James (612.414.4211, bill.james@jpods.com)

Objective: Leadership's the Call to Action
  Objective: Reduce petroleum usage by 30% by 2015.

Background: Principles of War
 

Oil supplies will be in relentless decline before we can re-tool to be independent of oil. There will be insufficient oil to manage all priorities of defense, farming and transportation. Aggressive action can mitigate the worst of the consequences. Vulnerabilities are severe across multiple Principles of War

  • Simplicity (Oil needs, 60% out of our control is a house of cards).
  • Security (Oil sources are unprotected and even hostile).
  • Logistics (Assuming 100% availability of oil for transport needs is unrealistic when looking at risks).

  Political Instability
 

GAO 07-283

Of current oil supplies, 62.8% are at Medium or worse risk of political instability.

Of future oil supplies, 84.9% face investment risks of Medium or worse.

If the oil supply were a vendor they would be fired for unacceptable risky nature.
  Peak Oil will occur before re-tooling
 

Production is stalled indicating Peak Oil. All liquid fuels (left), oil (right).

Accelerating demand and speculation will destabilize 90% of existing transport.
 

By major estimates (EIA, IEA, OPEC, BP, EXXON, ASPO, etc....) Peak Oil has or will occur before re-tooling.

Downward curves equate to the 1973 Oil Embargo compounded yearly.
 

Four Corners provides a clear documentary on Peak Oil.

Irish documentary.
  If gasoline price continues to rise existing transportation resources are likely to be disrupted.
  Climate Change
 

Continued use of oil will create hardships on the scale of "the Great Depression and World Wars, Sterns Review and IPCC.

The Arctic is a leading indicator.
Logistics: Scale of Re-Tooling
 

"If present trends continue, the world will need to invest $16 trillion over the next three decades to maintain and expand energy supply," (equivalent to one percent of total global GDP over the period)

"Without new policy actions, world energy demand will rise by two-thirds between now and 2030, and the world economy will falter if these energy supplies are not made available,"

Executive Director Claude Mandil, head of the Paris-based International Energy Agency told a USCIB audience in New York on November 13.
Implementation: Design for the Need, System Engineering
  In fact, one of the most significant failings of the current U.S. transportation system is that the automobile was never thought of as being part of a system until recently. It was developed and introduced during a period that saw the automobile as a standalone technology largely replacing the horse and carriage. So long as it outperformed the previous equine technology, it was considered a success. This success is not nearly so apparent if the automobile is examined from a systems thinking perspective. In that guise, it has managed to fail miserably across a host of dimensions. Many of these can be observed in any major US city today: oversized cars and trucks negotiating tight roads and streets, bridges and tunnels incapable of handling daily traffic density, insufficient parking, poor air quality induced in areas where regional air circulation geography restricts free flow of wind, a distribution of the working population to suburban locations necessitating automobile transportation, and so on. Had the automobile been developed as a multilateral system interconnected with urban (and rural) transportation networks and environmental systems, U.S. cities would be in a much different situation than they find themselves in today.

What is important here is not that the automobile could have been developed differently, but that in choosing to design, develop and deploy the automobile as a stand alone technology, a host of complementary transportation solutions to replace the horse and buggy were not considered.

Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management
by, Gregory S. Parnell, Ph.D., Editor
by, Patrick J. Driscoll, Ph.D., Editor
by, Dale L. Henderson, Ph.D., Design Editor

United States Military Academy,
West Point, NY

Last Oil Crisis
 

The 1973 Oil Embargo was a wake-up call. In 1974 the US Senate asked how to solve oil dependency.

In 1975 DOT answered that Automated Guideways and Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) is the most likely solution. It also noted that in a regulated market, commercialization restrictions drove commercialization away.

In the pain of the 1973 Oil Embargo we identified a solution.

Yet, we only built Morgantown.

Parasitic Mass
 


Problem: In repetitive travel we consume energy moving a ton to move a person.

Solution: Strive towards moving only the person.

JPods, Solar Powered Transportation
 

Automate highly repetitive travel with solar powered transportation.
Rescue-Rail, Temporary Networks
 

Rapidly deployed temporary logistical and medical networks.
Supporting Details
Government Studies
Video of Cabinetaxi This hundred million dollar test system failed to be expanded upon as the 1973 Oil Embargo faded and the will to expand sustainable infrastructure evaporated. The technology worked before modern computer networks. JPods patented the application of distribute collaborative networks and reduced the large parasitic mass of this types of personal automated mobility.
Last Oil Crisis, 1975 At Senatorial request, DOT defined PRT as a likely solution to oil addiction. It also noted the likely reasons it would not be adopted which had to do with lack of will to implement simple solutions.
March 2007 GAO Report We are in the midst of Peak Oil or will experience the consequences before we can re-tool transportation.

U.S. consumers paid $38 billion more for gasoline in the first six months of 2006 than they paid in the same period of 2005, and $57 billion more than they paid in the same period of 2004.
060322_EUStudy.pdf Definitive study by the European Union that concludes RPT is the solution that can attract drivers from their cars into mass transit.
Corps of Engineer Study Corps of Engineer's Study on the need to migrate to alternative energy sources.
InnovPTS2_Swedish.pdf Swedish study of PRT and its importance to replace auto trips.
CSTWinnipegGilbert_0604.pdf Canadian Sustainable Infrastructure study of energy sources and PRT.
edict_brochure.pdf European Union Summary of Study for PRT in several cities.
directory_fp5_cot_projects_en.pdf European Union extensive scientific approach to designing cities of the future.
Implementations
morgantown_TRB_111504.pdf Morgantown, WV has been operating an oversized, hybrid of Group and Personal Rapid Transit since 1975. They logged 100 million injury free passenger miles.
hagenstudyCabinetTaxi.pdf German PRT project
Wupertal Because of its suspended design, the Schwebenbahn is one of the safest transportation systems in the world. Having carried more than 1.5 billion passengers it has had only one fatal accident at the cost of 5 lives. That is radically different than the 40,000 deaths per year from cars in the US.
Industry and Academic Studies
prt_Campus_Schneider.pdf Study of campus solution with PRT.
EPA sponsored Studies Study of specific implementations by Steve Raney. Very well defined method of determining benefits
SolarEvolution Solar energy company presentation on the synergy between low mass transit and solar energy.
Princeton University Excellent study of how a network the size of New Jersey can be broken into implementations by economic community.
prt_Campus_Schneider.pdf Study of campus solution with PRT.
Prt_Italian.pdf Italian PRT study.
PRTinitiative_TRB_4web.pdf PRT study presented at the TRB.
FutureofHCPRT-Jan606.doc Dr. Ed Anderson's 2005 paper on PRT. Ed is a leading pioneer and carried the torch for many years.
infrastructure_cost_ASCE.doc Cost comparison of various infrastructure alternatives.
LeanManufacturingTransit.pdf Just-in-Time productivity gains benefited manufacturers shift from Mass Production. The same focus on quality applies to productivity opportunities in Mass Transportation.
T2K-Rebuttal-to-CALS.pdf Taxi 2000 response to not being selected as the vendor for Cincinnati's people mover.
Ultra_case_studies.pdf Ultra's case studies of various PRT opportunities
Ultra_clean_air_paper.pdf Ultra's clean air study.
Ultra_Econ_assessments.doc Ultra's Economic Assessment
CascadiaHitchhikePaper.doc PRT study of the Microsoft Campus area.
CaseForPRT.pdf Study on why PRT is important.
CostPerMileOperations_UWa.pdf Study of Cost per Mile of various rail systems.
emery_genl_plan.ppt Powerpoint using Emeryville, CA as an example of the benefits of PRT. Presentation by Steve Raney of Cities21.org.
Industry Sites
Advance Transit Organization which promotes the PRT industry.
Innovative Transportation University of Washington, Innovative Transportation Technologies site.
Get There Board Advocacy site
Citizens for PRT Advocacy site
Austin Citizens for PRT Advocacy site
Manufacturer's Sites
Skyweb Minnesota based PRT system.
ULTra British PRT System
Coaster Swiss PRT System
Vectus Korean/Swedish collaboration to build PRT systems. Well funded by mult-billion dollar Korean steel company.
SkyTran MegLev PRT system.
Mister Polish suspended system.
MegLev MagneMotion meglev company.
Macro Reports on Consequences
IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by WMO and UNEP to assess scientific, technical and socio- economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.
Stern Review British Treasury Report on immediate need to invest 1% of world GDP to mitigate 20% collapse of world GDP from Global Warming.
ABC Webcast of Peak Oil Very well done presentation on the details behind Peak Oil.
World Economic Forum, 2007 List of economic risks and probabilities.
Washington State Climate Change Consequences Very well done presentation on the details behind Peak Oil.
California Climate Warning Climate change impact on California.
Regulatory Breakthrough
freight_Public_Private.htm California Laws review for public investment in private rail.
Background details on automobiles and trip replacement
pub_heavy_load_10_06.pdf Heavy burden on families, housing and transportation. Study underscores that transportation is a very heavy burden on lower income working families.
RealPriceGasoline1998.pdf Real cost of gasoline.
AutoGHG_0608.pdf Automobiles and Green House Gases
GasPerDay_pmmtab48.pdf Gas usage per day by State
motor_gas_ass.pdf DOE assessment of mechanics of gas prices increases in 1996 and 1997.
CostsperMileRoads2005.pdf Cost per mile for roads.