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Oil Famine

Paths to war build slowly, like techtonic plates moving, stresses build until something triggers a sudden, violent release.

There are two known paths for Americans to wage war on Americans. Current Federal policies are rebuilding both these paths to war:

  • Taxation without Representation resulted in the Revolution. Since US Peak Oil in 1970, national debt has increased in tandem with foreign oil imports. The $20 trillion Federal debt is a $63,000 tax on the liberty and future labor of every child imposed without consent. Economic collapse into domestic war will result when children are unable to service this debt, or are unable or unwilling to push it off onto their children. 
  • Illicit Energy is dependence on energy outside self-reliance. Federal actions to expand slavery, such actions as the Kansas-Nebraska Act and Dred Scott decision, and Federal actions to expand foreign oil powered infrastructure exactly repeat the same path to war. Iraq and Bleeding Kansas are skirmish wars warning of coming general war.

Transfer of Wealth from the Many to the Few.

With Quantitive Easing, Federal policies added the path to war of the French Revolution. Printing $85 billion per month causes those holding assets to see the value of their assets increase in value. The young and poor who must sell their labor to buy assets see the value of their labor debased.

Near Collapse of 2008

US Peak Oil was in 1970 at 9.6 million barrels per day (mb/d). As traditional oil fields depleted gasoline prices increased forcing many families to use their mortgage payments to buy gasoline to keep their jobs. By Sept 2008 US oil production had decreased to 5.5 mb/d and foreclosures nearly collapsed the economy. Had capital markets collapsed, oil's long and fragile supply chain would have collapsed. Luckily, the US was able to reinflate the economy by the extraordinarily dangerous act of borrowing an additional $10 trillion dollars and printing $85 billion per month in quantitative easing. Nothing was done to address the underlying problem. Following is a graph I used to brief staffs for Senators McCain and Obama in July of 2008.

The left graph shows how families were losing disposable income to rising gas prices and the impact on their ability to carry their mortage and car debts. The upper right graph is a modified graph that DOE stopped updating in 2004. I added the frog in a pot of cool water of the fire, the rising price and foreclosure data after 2004. The bottom right graphs show World Peak Oil Discoveries was 1964 and the platauing of world oil production in 2005.

 

Syria's 2011 Collapse into Oil Famine

Syria's population of from 4.6 million in 1960 grew as their oil energy supply grew. Syria's Peak Oil was in 1996. Life requires energy, less energy, less life. As oil production depleted to 3/5th of Peak, Syria's 22.6 million people experienced a 95% decrease in oil energy between 2011 and 2013. Domestic war and mass migration resulted not from a lack of oil, but from the a capital collapse to sustain to oil infrastructure.  ISIS is a raider culture emerging to scavange on the remaining resouces. 

Following is a presentation and data on Oil Famine.

2019: Crisis of Net Energy, Supply, and Debt from Bill James on Vimeo.

 

Resources to understand the coming Oil Famine:

The following graphics are provided. Here is a link to the PowerPoint or KeyNote presentations. Please feel free to share this data. If possible, please reference JPods as a source.

 

 

   17. Peak Oil in 4 minutes

Link

US Army view on Peak Oil

EIA Oil Production  

Oil Spill Summary  

German Military on Peak Oil  

Bloomington, IN on Peak Oil  

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