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Unfortunately, the official government agencies have been criminally inaccurate in their forecasts.
A major reason for this inaccuracy is the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA assumes that oil will materialize from oil "fields yet to be developed" and "fields yet to be found". In a rare moment of honesty, they even published this in IEA's 2010 World Energy Outlook:
I advise you to plant a garden soon and buy some guns; because if policy makers continue to use this advice, energy costs will be unaffordable, gasoline outages will be chronic and the food system will following the banking system into collapse.
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